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WASHINGTON, Nov. 29 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season officially comes to a close on November 30, NOAA scientists are carefully reviewing a set of dynamic weather patterns that yielded lower-than-expected hurricane activity across the Atlantic Basin. As a result, the United States was largely spared from significant landfalling storms. However, several noteworthy events took place, including two back-to-back Category 5 hurricanes hitting Central America and the rapid near-shore intensification of the single U.S. landfalling hurricane.
As a whole, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced a total of 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes. NOAA's August update to the seasonal forecast predicted 13 to 16 named storms - of which seven to nine would be hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. An average season has 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
"The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced the predicted number of named storms, but the combined number, duration and intensity of the hurricanes did not meet expectations," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "The United States was fortunate this year to have fewer strong hurricanes develop than predicted. Normally, the climate patterns that were in place produce an active, volatile hurricane season."
The climate patterns predicted for the 2007 hurricane season - an ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of oceanic and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995) and La Nina - produced the expected below-normal hurricane activity over the eastern and central Pacific regions. However, La Nina's impact over the Atlantic was weaker than expected, which resulted in stronger upper-level winds and increased wind shear over the Caribbean Sea during the peak months of the season (August-October). This limited Atlantic hurricane formation during that period. NOAA's scientists are investigating possible climate factors that may have led to this lower-than-expected activity.
All in all, one hurricane, one tropical storm and three tropical depressions struck the United States: Tropical Depression Barry came ashore near Tampa Bay, Fla., on June 2; Tropical Depression Erin hit southeast Texas on August 16 and Tropical Depression Ten came ashore along the western Florida panhandle on Sept. 21; Tropical Storm Gabrielle hit east-central North Carolina on Sept. 9, and Hurricane Humberto hit the upper Texas coast on Sept. 13.
Also this year, the U.S. was reminded of the dangers of inland flooding. "Texas and Oklahoma experienced deadly flooding when Erin dumped up to 11 inches of rain. Fresh water flooding is yet another deadly aspect of tropical cyclones," said Ed Rappaport, acting director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center.
Other noteworthy statistics of the season include:
-- Eight storms formed in the Atlantic Basin during September - tying September 2002 for having the most storm formations during any given month.
-- For the first time in recorded history, two Category 5 hurricanes made landfall in the Atlantic Basin during the same season. Hurricane Dean hit the Yucatan Peninsula near Costa Maya on Aug. 21 with 165 mph winds, followed by Hurricane Felix on Sept. 2, near Punta Gorda, Nicaragua, with 160 mph winds.
-- With a central pressure of 906 millibars, Hurricane Dean had the third lowest pressure at landfall - behind the Labor Day 1935 Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 in Cancun, Mexico. Dean is also the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida in 1992.
-- Hurricane Humberto grew from a tropical depression with top winds of 35 mph into a hurricane with winds of 85 mph within 24 hours - only three others storms (Celia 1970, Arlene and Flora 1963) intensified faster during a 24-hour period from below tropical storm strength.
-- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will release an official summary of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season in January 2008. NOAA will announce its 2008 hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific in May.
NOAA's Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane outlooks are official products of its Climate Prediction Center in collaboration with scientists at the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. NOAA's Central Pacific Outlook is an official product of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, and in collaboration with the Climate Prediction Center.
Web Site: http://www.hurricanes.gov/
http://www.noaa.gov/
http://www.weather.gov/
WASHINGTON, Aug. 9 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center today released its update to the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, maintaining its expectations for an above-normal season.
As we enter the peak months (August through October) of the Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists are predicting an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, with the likelihood of 13 to 16 named storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes (Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).
The development of key climate factors through early August has increased the confidence of an above-normal season, and has also led the NOAA team to slightly tighten the ranges that had been given in their May outlook -- due to development of La Nina-like conditions exerting influence. In May, NOAA predicted a range of 13-17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, and three to five becoming major hurricanes.
The climate patterns responsible for the expected above-normal 2007 hurricane season continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of oceanic and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in key areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the El Nino/La Nina cycle, according to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center based in Camp Springs, Md.
"Most of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions have developed as expected, and are consistent with those predicted in May," said Bell. "The biggest wild card in the May outlook was whether or not La Nina would form, and if so, how strong it would be.
"Today's El Nino/La Nina forecast from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a slightly greater than 50 percent probability that La Nina will form during the peak of the hurricane season. But more importantly, we are already observing wind patterns similar to those created by La Nina across the tropical Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea that encourage tropical cyclone development. The conditions are ripe for an above-normal season."
NOAA's seasonal outlooks do not specify where and when tropical storms and hurricanes could strike. Nevertheless, during above-normal seasons many of the storms form over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. These systems generally track westward, towards the United States and the Caribbean Sea, thereby posing an increased threat to these regions.
So far this season, there have been three Atlantic named storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal), which is slightly above average. On average, one to two storms develop in June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook is a joint product of the scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. NOAA meteorologists use a suite of sophisticated computer forecast models and high- tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes. Scientists rely on information gathered by NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve personnel who fly directly into storms in hurricane hunter aircraft; NOAA, NASA and Department of Defense satellites; a network of Doppler radars and buoys and partners among the international meteorological services.
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
On the Web:
-- Updated 2007 Atlantic Hurricane outlook (technical product):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
-- Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion/Forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory
-- NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards: http://www.weather.gov/nwr
Source: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
Web site: http://www.noaa.gov/
http://www.weather.gov/nwr
6-29-05. Tropical Storm Bret, the second storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this month, is expected to make landfall over Mexico between Tuxpan and Tampico, about 250 miles south of the Texas border. The storm should weaken over rugged terrain. Tropical Storm Arlene hit the Florida Panhandle early June.
9-23-04. Tropical Storm Ivan, formerly the hurricane that wrecked havoc on the Florida Panhandle and Alabama has regenerated itself in the Gulf after traveling north through the southern and mid-Atlantic states, then drifting southward back to Florida. 50 mph winds and five to 10 inches of rain are expected. Barrier islands and beaches from both states are at risk. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion is expected. As a Hurricane, Ivan caused 52 deaths in the United States and 70 in the Caribbean. Flooding has been the major cause of destruction.
(Sept 9, 2004). The recent onslaught of major hurricanes that threaten the Caribbean islands and southeast United States is a reminder of 1992’s Hurricane Andrew that hit South Florida and flattened Homestead, causing more than $20 billion in damage. Tomorrow, September 10, is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The recent hurricanes have spawned a record number of tornadoes for the month of August across the U.S. The preliminary count, before Hurricane Francis was 173 and it topped the previous August record of 126 tornadoes set in 1979. Records date back to 1950. Tornadoes frequently occur in the forward-right quadrant of a tropical storm or hurricane, where wind shear is the greatest.
Hurricane Ivan, packing sustained winds of 160 mph winds, is a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity rating scale. Currently, it is headed for Jamaica, an island that was hit by Hurricane Gilbert, a Category 3, in 1988. Ivan is expected to bring flash floods and mudslides. It killed at least 16 people in Grenada, Barbados, and other islands of the Caribbean and damaged 90 percent of the homes in Grenada, a country with 100,000 people. Grenada is a major world producer of nutmeg; however, with the devastation, it is unlikely that crops have survived along with other forms of agriculture. An old 17th century stone prison was demolished and prisoners were on the loose, including politicians jailed for 20 years for killings in a 1983 left-wing palace coup that lead to a U.S. invasion. Parts of Venezuela’s north coast have been flooded by the torrential rains. By the weekend, it is expected to reach Jamaica and Cuba. Tourists and residents were also told to evacuate the Florida Keys, which also had to evacuate for Hurricanes Charley and Frances, hurricanes that were three weeks apart, a Category 4 and 2, respectively, when they made initial landfalls.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a hurricane warning for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Hurricane watches exist in the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Domican Republic westward, including Port Au Prince and Cuba.
After wrecking havoc in all parts of Florida, Hurricane Francis continued to cause trouble as a tropical depression after Labor Day in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. More than 2.5 million people were without electricity because of the storm. A sinkhole in I-95 around Lake Worth caused the rerouting of traffic. Mandatory evacuations and curfews continued to be in place even after the storm left because of the dangerous after-effects like power outages and flooding. Fifteen people lost their lives in storm-related incidents—10 in Florida, two in Georgia, one in South Carolina,and two in the Bahamas. State insurance officials estimate Hurricane Francis will cost between $2 to $ billion dollars, which is less than Charley. Francis’ damage was extensive; however, Charley’s was more structural. On the agricultural front, Francis may have been more devastating, especially cattle and citrus fruits / juices. Hurricane Francis was a Category 4 while in the tropics, however, it weakened before landfall as a Category 2 in Stuart. It crossed the state and exited into the Gulf of Mexico via Tampa, before making a second landfall in the Florida Panhandle at St. Marks, 20 miles from the state’s capital, Tallahassee.
Hurricane Charley made landfall in Punta Gorda, Florida as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds.
9-23-04. Gonaives, Haiti, the city flood-ravaged and strewn with dead bodies from the aftermath of Tropical Storm Jeanne, is in the progress of dumping bodies into 14-foot-deep mass graves transported by trucks. More than 98 percent of Haiti’s land is deforested and the torrents of water and mudslides had nothing standing in their way. Homes and crops were destroyed. People have been without food or water for three or four days. Relief efforts are hampered by impaired roads. Gonaives is the third largest city in Haiti with a population of 250,000. Most survivors climbed trees to escape the flood.
The decomposing bodies are a health risk because the contamination of water sources and flooding of latrines can cause an outbraek of waterborne diseases. Jeanne has also killed seven people in Puerto Rico and 19 in the Dominican Republic.
[Weather/World]
9-23-04. Hurricane Jeanne, who wrecked havoc in Haiti as a tropical storm, is now in the open Atlantic, threatening the Bahamas and the United States with 100 mph top sustained winds. She could come as early as this weekend and dangerous surf and rip currents along with large swells are expect-ed before her arrival.
Hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Ivan have caused billions of dollars of damage and over 60 deaths in Florida. Weather fore-casters do not expect Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of the season, and Hurricane Karl to pose a threat to North America. The hurricane season ends November 30.
6-23-03. Fourteen named storms and eight hurricanes have been forecast for the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, double the number of hurricanes that developed last year. Three storms are predicted to reach Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds above 111 miles per hour (mph). Named storms are those with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. A higher than average chance exists that one of those majors storms will hit the U.S. coast. According to William Gray, forecaster with the Tropical Meteorology Project based at Colorado State University, "the United States has been very lucky over the past three decades in witnessing very few major hurricanes making landfall in Florida and along the East Coast. At the same time, we have seen large coastal population growth, and many of the people moving to these areas do not realize the potential danger of landfalling hurricanes."
NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts eleven to fifteen named storms, with six to nine reaching hurricane strength. Hurricane season ends November 30.
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fabian, Grace, Henri, Isabel, Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam Teresa, Victor and Wanda.
Andres, Blanca, Carlos, Dolores, Enrique, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty Nora, Olaf, Patricia, Rick, Sandra, Terry, Vivian, Waldo, Xina, York, and Zelda.
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